Build deterrence against China, stitch alliances with its adversaries: My prescription

Last week in Pune, friends wanted me to share my experience and thoughts on india-china relationship in the context of recent incursion in ladakh and premier li's india visit. some friends who couldn't come wanted me to upload the power point presentations. here's an excerpt of those two talks with some photographs. each talk was of an hour followed by 30-45 mins of interaction. 

CHINA’S EXPANSIONISM AND ITS EFFECT ON THE WORLD

      SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEA DISPUTES

           CHINA HAS DISPUTES WITH ALMOST ALL COUNTRIES AROUND THE    SOUTH CHINA SEA, EAST CHINA SEA

            GULF OF TONKIN: CHINA AND VIETNAM

             NATUNA ISLANDS: INDONESIA, CHINA, TAIWAN

             SPARTLY  AND PARACEL ISLANDS: PHILIPPINES, VIETNAM, MALAYSIA, TAIWAN AND CHINA

              SENKAKU ISLANDS:  JAPAN AND CHINA

                                       SOUTH CHINA SEA 

•        CHINA IS STAEDILY PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES AND KEEPING ALMOST ALL NEIGHBOURS  OFF-BALANCE

•         VIETNAM,  JAPAN, PHILIPPINES  ALL HAVE ISSUES WITH CHINA’S EXPANSIONIST  DESIGNS

 RICH IN MINERALS AND OIL, STAKES ARE HIGH IN S. CHINA SEA WATERS

 INDIA HAS BACKED DOWN FROM EXPLORING OIL

  PHILIPPINES AND VIETNAM CONTINUE TO SPAR WITH CHINA IN                                                      S. CHINA SEA

INDIAN GOVT PERFIDY

To my left Lt. Gen DB Shekatkar, one of my gurus

• TILL  MID-1950S CHINA HAD  NEVER DISPUTED 

INDIA’S  BOUNDARY CLAIMS IN LADAKH

•HOWEVER  FROM 1958 IT STARTED CLAIMING PARTS 

OF AKSAI CHIN ON MILITARY  GROUNDS

•BUILT  ROADS, INFRASTRUCTURE, GARRISONS

•1959: IT WROTE A LETTER  EXPLAINING WHY

•NEHRU SAID NOT A BLADE OF GRASS GROWS THERE

•         CHINA WANTED FULL CONTROL OVER TIBET &

             XINJIANG  & THEREFORE A CONNECTING ROAD

               THE GROUND REALITY

           CHINA  HAS  STEADILY  PUSHED BOUNDARY  WEST  TOWARD  SHYOK INCREASING PRESSURE ON SIACHEN

•        DEPSANG , DBO ARE PART OF SUB-SECTOR NORTH

•         THIS IS WEDGED BETWEEN AKSAI CHIN IN THE EAST AND  POK IN THE WEST

•         WEST OF KARAKORAM PASS AT POINT 6599, CHINA HAS CONTROL OVER TERRITORY CEDED BY PAK

•          CHINA IS WORRIED ABOUT XINJIANG AND INDIA’S   ACCESS TO CENTRAL ASIA THRU THIS SMALL PATCH

•

        WHY DEPSANG

AROUND DBO THERE ARE TWO CRUCIAL AREAS: TRIG HEIGHTS AND BURTSE/DEPSANG PLAINS

•2005: 50 INTRUSIONS; 2009: 70 INTRUSIONS

•BUILT 5 KM ROAD FROM JAK II INSIDE INDIAN AREA

•2011: BUILT 30 KM ROAD INSIDE INDIAN AREA ALONG RAKKI NALLAH,

•2013:REINFORCED CLAIMS TO THE AREA BY PUTTING TENTS & FORCING INDIA TO STOP PATROLLING

        (SOURCE: FORMER SPECIAL DIRECTOR IB, RN RAVI)     

                                                             

         CHINESE APPROACH TO BORDERS

       •CHINA HAS 14 LAND BORDERS  & 8 MARITIME BOUNDARIES; ONLY RUSSIA HAS MORE  Nos.

       •BEIJING HAS SETTLED 12 OF THE 14 LAND BOUNDARIES EXCEPT WITH INDIA, BHUTAN

       •SETTLEMENTS CAME AT THE TIME OF CHINA’S CHOOSING, WITH DECLINING NATION-STATES  

       •WITH INDIA, IT HAS KEPT UP THE PRETENCE OF ENGAGEMENT WITHOUT SUBSTANCE

         •MANMOHAN SINGH HAS FOR THE FIRST TIME SAID BORDER DISPUTE IS A CORE ISSUE

In the audience Mrs Meghna &Air Marshal BN Gokhale, ex vice chief of IAF

WHERE ARE WE AT THE MOMENT

•15 ROUNDS OF SR LEVEL TALKS CONCLUDED

WITHOUT ANY SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS

•BOTH SIDES HAVE STUCK TO THEIR  POSITIONS

•  INCREASING ASSERTIVE CHINESE ROLE IN PAK-OCCUPIED KASHMIR IS A NEW ELEMENT

• CHINA KEEPS INDIA STRATEGICALLY ENGAGED IN TRADE  BUT TACTICALLY OFF BALANCE 

•     INDIAN DIFFIDENCE STEMS FROM EVENTS OF 1962?

    CHINA'S SOUTH ASIA FOCUS
•STEADY INCREASE IN MILITARY AND DEVELOPMENT AID TO SRI LANKA EVEN AFTER END OF WAR

        •LONG-STANDING RELATIONSHIP WITH BANGLADESH

        •HAD HUGE INFLUENCE IN MYANMAR BUT SOME PROBLEMS  CROPPING UP OF LATE

        •IN NEPAL , SEVERAL CHINA STUDY CENTRES HAVE CROPPED UP ALONG INDIA BORDER

           •MAKING INROADS INTO BHUTAN TOO

 'HIGHER THAN HIMALAYAS, DEEPER THAN THE INDIAN OCEEAN

 •GWADAR’S HANDING OVER SIGNIFICANT  

PREMIER LI ANNOUNCED NEW AIRPORT AT GWADAR, LINKS TO REST OF PAK

 •UPGRADE  OF KARAKORAM HIGHWAY

•DEVELOPMENT OF 1000 MW HYDRO POWER PROJECT IN PAK-OCCUPIED KASHMIR  •CHINESE SUPPLY OF MILITARY HARDWARE, FIGHTER JETS  TO PAK CONTINUES 

WHAT SHOULD INDIA DO?

TRUST BUT VERIFY PRINCIPLE; CONFRONT CHINA ON UNCOMFORTABLE QUESTIONS, ISSUES

•INSIST ON MAP EXCHANGE; RENEW BORDER TALKS

•RAPID INFRASTRUCTURE BUILD UP, BEEF UP MILITARY WHEREWITHAL WITHOUT FANFARE

•BUILD A MORE POWERFUL NAVY

•PREPARE THE COUNTRY FOR EVENTUAL SOLUTION

•BUILD PARTNERSHIPS WITH CHINA’S ADVERSARIES, DO A REVERSE STRING OF PEARLS